The Hidden Cost of 1.6 Million Lost Bee Colonies

The surveys tallied 1.6 million dead colonies. The economic analysis calculated $600 million in direct losses to beekeepers - replacement costs, lost pollination income, foregone honey production. Those numbers appeared in press releases and industry reports. They quantified the immediate damage.

They didn't capture what happens next.

The Beekeepers Who Won't Rebuild

Steve Godlin operated his beekeeping business in Tulare County, California for 50 years. In September 2024, his hives were heavy with bees. By November, he was watching colonies dwindle to cups of bees and queens surrounded by dead workers on the ground. In fall 2024, 136 of his hives were stolen - approximately $55,000 in losses. The bee theft represented a symptom. When live colonies become scarce, even dead equipment gains value.

"My brother Paul and I sold the bees, sold the trucks, sold all the comb, all the supers and anything bee related before Thanksgiving," Godlin said.

Fifty years. Sold out before Thanksgiving.

Brandon Hopkins, professor of pollinator ecology at Washington State University, stated the consequences directly: "I don't want to be a fearmonger, but this level of national loss could mean increased bankruptcies amongst beekeepers."

The $600 million figure accounts for dead bees. It doesn't account for businesses that close permanently because rebuilding from 62% losses isn't economically viable. Each operation that exits removes capacity from the pollination services industry. Those hives don't get replaced. That knowledge doesn't transfer to new beekeepers. That equipment doesn't come back.

Andrew Bauer runs Hazel's Honey LLC, a family operation in Paradise Valley, Montana. He reported near-total winter losses in 2025. Photos show him transporting dead hives in his truck, remaining bees clinging to life in otherwise abandoned equipment. The business continues, but the losses exceed what small operations can absorb without external support or dramatic restructuring.

Donna Moyer operates Alpine Peaks, a commercial operation of approximately 300 hives in Montana. She characterized her operation as "potentially the only other non-mobile commercial beekeeper in the state" besides her immediate colleagues. Her business model doesn't depend on transporting bees to California for almond pollination. That independence may have protected her from the worst losses, but even she expected 20-25% winter mortality as baseline acceptable damage.

The distinction matters. Beekeepers who don't participate in almond pollination miss the largest single revenue opportunity in American beekeeping. But participating means transporting colonies cross-country, exposing them to concentrated pathogen loads from thousands of other hives, stressing them through travel and rapid population buildup for early-season bloom. The operators who depend most heavily on almond income experienced the highest losses. The operators who avoided almonds sacrificed income but may have preserved more colonies.

Either way represents constrained choices. Participate and risk catastrophic losses. Avoid participation and accept permanently lower revenue. Neither option builds a sustainable business.

The Farmers Left Without Bees

Almond growers in California sign pollination contracts in fall, months before February bloom. The contracts specify colony numbers and often frame counts - typically 8-10 frames of bees per hive to ensure strong pollination. Growers pay deposits. Beekeepers commit to delivering specific quantities.

When 62% of colonies die between contract signature and bloom, those commitments become unfulfillable.

"The almond industry frequently asks for strong colonies," Hopkins noted. "But this year, growers are desperate. Anything with live bees in a box is in demand because the industry is short on supply."

The desperation creates cascading problems. Growers who secured contracts discovered beekeepers couldn't deliver. Beekeepers who survived with partial losses tried to fulfill contracts by splitting remaining strong colonies, creating weaker pollination units. Some growers contracted for more colonies than needed as insurance against shortages, exacerbating scarcity for other farms.

Pollination fees must rise when supply contracts relative to demand. But almond prices have declined from mid-2010s peaks. Growers already face pollination costs representing 5% of total production expenses - far higher than the 1% typical for most crops. Higher fees further compress already thin profit margins.

Between 2020 and 2024, California almond growers removed more bearing acreage than they planted for the first time in nearly three decades. The 2024 removals totaled approximately 66,794 acres. Water scarcity, low commodity prices, and rising production costs - including pollination - made continued operation uneconomical for some orchards.

Those removals reduce future pollination demand, which theoretically should ease pressure on bee supply. But the timing doesn't align. Growers need bees now, for orchards already planted and bearing. The 2025 bloom required 2.8 million colonies. Beekeepers lost 1.6 million between June 2024 and February 2025, with commercial operations averaging 62% losses.

The math doesn't work. Every US commercial bee colony plus all hobbyist and sideline operations barely met almond demand before the losses. After losses, the shortage became acute.

The Crops That Come After

Almonds bloom in February. The season moves forward. Apples, cherries, blueberries, melons, pumpkins, cucumbers, squash - crops valued at more than $18 billion annually depend on bee pollination.

Matt Mulica, facilitator of the Honey Bee Health Coalition, described the cascade: "There's going to be a huge effect on all the specialty crops that come next. Your blueberries, your apples later on. There's going to be a trickle down effect."

Beekeepers who lost most colonies in January and February can't rebuild in time for spring and summer pollination contracts. Splitting healthy colonies to replace losses takes time. Queens must be raised or purchased. New colonies require weeks to build population. An operation that lost 62% of hives in winter can't simply replace them by spring.

Some beekeepers will prioritize higher-value contracts - almonds command $165-200 per colony versus $50-75 for most other crops. If capacity exists for only partial fulfillment, rational economics suggests servicing almond contracts first and leaving other crops without bees.

Apple growers in Washington, blueberry growers in Maine and Michigan, cherry producers across the northern states - they all depend on the same constrained bee supply. When California absorbs available capacity for almonds, less remains for everything else.

Hopkins addressed this directly: "Growers of crops downstream from almonds may need to scramble if the beekeeper they've relied on to pollinate their apple trees, for example, isn't in business anymore."

The direct cost to farmers: higher pollination fees as beekeepers remaining in business charge more to cover losses. Reduced availability as some operations close permanently. Lower crop yields if pollination proves inadequate. All of which translates to higher consumer prices at grocery stores and potentially reduced selection as production of pollinator-dependent crops declines.

The Food Supply Connection

Approximately 35% of global food crops depend on animal pollinators. In the United States, pollination contributes an estimated $15-20 billion annually to agricultural production value. Honeybees represent about 10% of world pollinators by species count but provide disproportionate value because they can be managed and moved to crops when needed.

The crops affected:

• Almonds: 100% dependent on honeybee pollination. Every almond consumed required bee pollination.
• Apples, cherries, blueberries: Heavily dependent. Yield